Pro trader and investor. Sharing daily market insights, stock picks, and cycle analysis. Follow for actionable alpha in stock and crypto markets. Bitcoin OG.youtube.com/@sithetrader Lisbon, PortugalJoined November 2020
@scottmelker@jdorman81 Name me one traditional asset that has never had multi year decline phases?
Why do you think Bitcoin will be any different? At this point diminishing returns aren’t a myth.
@GaryCardone@JamesWynnReal Take the bet @JamesWynnReal OR stop spouting rubbish.
Bitcoin won’t hit $100k by 2030 at this rate, let alone $1m! Bitcoin isn’t the new shiny thing, no one didn’t hear of it already. Saylor was the exit liquidity. Move on.
@bramk@jdorman81 Show me one asset (aside from BTC) that has returned 11.5%+ per year every year, without multi year drawdown periods. I’ll wait.
It’s a ticking time bomb.
@BigpictureBTC Great list.
Saylor is a complete fraud, and I’m sure he is very confused as to why Bitcoin isn’t at $500k already after buying 4% of the supply.
Really goes to show how much the whales are dumping on him.
The man that killed Bitcoin.
The Michael Saylor Broken Promise Tracker 🧵
1/ "Never dilute if it decreases Bitcoin per share."
Broken: Announced today the issuance of 1.4M new common shares to bolster cash reserves and manage STRC stress, mathematically decreasing BPS for common holders.
2/ "Never dilute below 1.22x EV mNAV."
Broken: Floor officially breached today. 1.4M shares were issued at a compressed premium simply to hoard fiat cash rather than accreting Bitcoin.
3/ STRC will act as a stable "money market fund" (3% volatility).
Broken: The preferred stock is now trading like a volatile high-beta asset. 30-day historical volatility hit 11% and the principal plunged to $90.40, breaking its $100 par value.
4/ "There is no second best crypto asset."
Broken: Now heavily promoting DeFi yield protocols and stablecoins (like Apyx and Saturn), as these alternative assets have quietly become STRC's largest holders to absorb the supply.
5/ "We will never sell."
Broken: In May 2026, Strategy Inc. officially sold 32 BTC, permanently shattering the perpetual hold narrative.
6/ The $42B plan will be deployed methodically "over 3 years."
Broken: Burned through the vast majority of the allocation in months, eventually halting purchases entirely due to dividend coverage stress.
7/ "Never dilute below 1.0x basic mNAV."
Broken: Floor entirely abandoned as market premiums collapsed.
8/ "Never dilute below 2.5x basic mNAV."
Broken: This initial floor was quietly abandoned the moment premiums began compressing.
9/ "Zero counterparty risk."
Broken: While technically equity, the massive preferred stack introduces severe systemic risk. The 11.5% yield created a massive annual cash obligation, acting as a structural margin call that is forcing the liquidation of treasury BTC.
10/ "Chasing yield is how you lose your Bitcoin."
Broken: Created STRC to chase yield and is now seemingly in a position where they will need to start selling (losing) their Bitcoin.
11/ Maintain accurate, lawful corporate accounting.
Broken: Caught cooking financial books in 2000, triggering an SEC settlement. The stock wiped out 90% of its value in a single month, ultimately crashing 99.4% from its peak.
@goopgob@BurnA951@scottmelker Assuming no more BTC buys, yes.
But we all know Saylor can’t help himself.
It will be interesting to see what MSTR does, should he continue to sell common stock. I’m surprised it’s up today.
@BurnA951@scottmelker It can. They only have 5 months of runway left to pay the dividends. Saylor has to sell a lot more BTC, or a lot more MSTR (or both) to raise cash. For now it does seem like he will sacrifice MSTR to save STRC, but there is no guarantee.
@btcjvs They should have. But Saylor has a gambling problem and can’t help but rug his own shareholders to buy more BTC. This addiction will be his downfall.
@JoshMandell6@LANDIGlobal How isn’t it toast? Saylor has just told the market that the answer to his cash flow problem is to sell/dilute more common stock.
“The flywheel is now running in reverse”.
Sacrificing MSTR to save STRC looks to be the decision.
If so, mass MSTR dilution is coming. Why anyone would hold this stock here is beyond me.
@nic_carter@ceterispar1bus Correct
They issued common stock to buy the new bitcoin announced today
But here is what people will be missing
With about 350 million basic shares outstanding, the gross NAV per share comes to around $157, but MSTR was trading at $118 -a significant discount. This means
Completely indecisive action. $200m of MSTR sold to fund $100m BTC + $100m cash.
What’s worrying is none of last weeks price action was due to MSTR BTC sales.
He’s not changed his behaviour, he’s not taken action to secure the cash position.
Nothing changes. Risk remains.
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy…
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