Deep Inference @DeepInference
the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics : use code TRIAL for 50% off first month. aionanalytics.com/ai-terminal Joined January 2025-
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Did the market just top? Yesterday: record high. Today: red, ugly, lots of blood. Let's go through the red flags. 🧵
@scott32061303 wow that looks like hell
What would you do if $SPY did this?
I think risk has materially shifted. Here's a proprietary indicator I made awhile back depicting that. Aside from that... many other data points above & more showing some notable probability of possible shift over the coming 2 month period. And btw... as we both know given the last 2 months, and the 2 months before that, 2 months is a long time in the market.
$SPY is showing me something I do not see often. The trend models are maxed out bullish. 5/5 bull. 90% price trend. Green across every horizon. The options market is positioned the opposite way. Negative gamma. Charm pulling down. Downside magnet sitting below price. A bullish trend stacked on fragile structure. That is money positioned for a big move, not a calm grind higher. Negative gamma means it gets amplified whichever way it goes. And the pull right now is down. Lets see if it stays that way... Unfortunately, positioning on the $VXX adds strength to this idea too.
@Reformed_Trader @TradableAstro @pepemoonboy @ruth_capital @cantonmeow @David_Tracey @citrini @Jake__Wujastyk @Zac_Markovich This is exactly the type of data point that seems a bit useless. Why has the market not topped in June? What if we did for the first time in 2026? Also all market tops are short term in the long run. So did we just top for one day, one week, one month, or one year?
@_hustlerdoc @WishingWealth A part of being able to make money in markets is being fluid, have an open mind.
@1Stoller17211 @TradableAstro what does this mean
So is this just a blip? Maybe. A single red day after a record high is not a top. The tape shakes people out and grinds higher all the time. But here is what stays with me. Follow the liquidity and the clock points to a top in late June. And the things flashing today are the ones that tend to show up near the end, not the middle. The hedge is leading. Positioning has turned fragile. The downside winners are starting to accelerate. Nobody rings a bell at the top. The index keeps printing green while the internals quietly change sides. This is not a call. It is a warning light. Maybe it is nothing. But this is what the early part of something always looks like.
Flag four, and it is early, but it is starting. The daily tape still reads bullish. Strongest name is a leveraged semis play. The whole top 20 is AI and chips. But the first downside winners are accelerating now. Inverse Amazon is climbing while Amazon rolls over. The inverse Nasdaq just left the weakest list. The shorts move before the index does. Watch this list over the next week. Just look at those downside %s since added... they're starting to give the Top 20 Strongest a run for their money.
Flag two. The tide is going out. Global liquidity is the last thing still flashing supportive. Weekly trend green. Up 2.5 on the week. But read the forecast, not the label. The model has liquidity draining from late june into late-July. The one tailwind left rolls over right as the market walks into the weakest stretch of its year. Tops form when the final support quietly leaves. This is the final support, and it is scheduled to leave.
Flag one. The hedge is in front. After today's selloff, Inverse Beta is the strongest sector on the 1H. Out of 1,125 scored names, the basket built to rise when stocks fall is sitting at number one. 71% of it is in the top leadership tier. Average score 79. Step out to the 4H and it is the second fastest accelerating sector in the whole universe. Up 16.5 over three days. Up 19.5 over five. So this is not a one hour blip. The bearish basket has been climbing for days. The selloff just put it on top.
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