Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf
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Finally, Sand absolutely needs to run up a solid margin in IA-03. He was able to do this in ‘22 by cracking 60% in Polk (Des Moines) & winning suburban Dallas, allowing him receive 56% compared with Rep Cindy Axne’s 49%. One might say Dallas is a must win for Sand.
Sand will also need to do well in IA-02, where he received 53% in his ‘22 Auditor race to Liz Mathis’s ~46% against Rep Ashley Hinson. With Hinson, a known overperformer, on the Senate ballot, Sand may not fare much better there this year.
@Sinfulskin2 @IIKnowIDont @TUNKIN26 @DemDeanna @keeshalldaylong You got it Sin. 💙😺😎
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
OHIO POLL - Senate 🟦 Sherrod Brown: 53% 🟥 Jon Husted (inc): 45% —— Fav-Unfav • Brown: 53-44 (+9) • Husted: 41-50 (-9) Fox News Poll (A-) | 5/28-6/1 | RV foxnews.com/politics/fox-n…
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
CRYSTAL BALL: @kkondik and I formalize some ratings we announced after Iowa voted last night. The Gov race moves from Leans R to Toss-up while the Senate race moves from Likely R to Leans R. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ra…
Sand will also need to do well in IA-02, where he received 53% in his ‘22 Auditor race to Liz Mathis’s ~46% against Rep Ashley Hinson. With Hinson, a known overperformer, on the Senate ballot, Sand may not fare much better there this year.
In order to win statewide in IA, Rob Sand likely needs to do a bit better in IA-01, home to strongly Dem Johnson County. While he received 52% in his ‘22 Auditor race, compared to Christina Bohannan’s 46%, he’ll likely need to flip Scott County and hold his ground elsewhere.
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Happy 90th Birthday to Bruce Dern!
In order to win statewide in IA, Rob Sand likely needs to do a bit better in IA-01, home to strongly Dem Johnson County. While he received 52% in his ‘22 Auditor race, compared to Christina Bohannan’s 46%, he’ll likely need to flip Scott County and hold his ground elsewhere.
While Rob Sand has virtually no chance at winning IA-04 this year, it’s interesting to see that he ran 10% above the Dem House nominee in the CD in 2022. That could be the difference in a tight race. What do we think the margin is in IA-04 this year?
@erickson_68 Oh yeah, for a 3-0 map, they have to get creative and stretch themselves way too thin. It’s similar (though also with substantial contrasts) to NV, where Dems 3-1 gerrymander could collapse at any time.
@conservative767 @kkondik Haven’t read his article yet, but it’s likely a placeholder rating since the strong incumbent (Hinson) isn’t running there, leaving the seat open. It may get moved back to likely once there’s a better idea of the candidates’ campaigns and overall environment.
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Three additional changes this week, all in the House IA-2 Likely R to Leans R AL-2 Safe D to Likely R LA-6 Safe D to Safe R IA-2 change goes hand in hand with the other Iowa changes. AL/LA changes are because of redistricting, which might be over now for 2026
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
US Senate Iowa primaries from the AP/NYT 🟥Republicans: 51.8% 🟦Democrats: 48.2% >95% of the vote in
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
Randy Feenstra lost the Republican primary for Iowa Governor on the 6 year anniversary of his primary win against Steve King. Ironically, Steve King endorsed his winning opponent.
@LillianBelle2 He’ll endorse Sand for the general now. 🤭
@ElectionMapsIF I agree, and there many other examples of Govs that have tried to run for Senate and flopped. Remember though, Sand is still running for a state level race here (Gov), even if it’s much more high profile than Auditor.
While Rob Sand has virtually no chance at winning IA-04 this year, it’s interesting to see that he ran 10% above the Dem House nominee in the CD in 2022. That could be the difference in a tight race. What do we think the margin is in IA-04 this year?
@kkondik The competitiveness of those other three districts is what makes me think IA Rs will attempt to dismantle the commission and redraw the maps for ‘28, especially if Dems win 1-2 of the seats this year…
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