Merlin Strategy @StrategyMerlin
Polling and Strategic Insights | [email protected] | British Polling Council member merlinstrategy.com Joined April 2025-
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You can read the writeup here: newstatesman.com/politics/uk-po…
You can read @RMCunliffe's writeup of our latest @StrategyMerlin focus groups in Makerfield in the @NewStatesman ⬇️⬇️⬇️
"First: the Reform voters. Among this group, the hatred for Keir Starmer and the government they had all voted for in 2024 was visceral. “I’ve never been lied to like I have been by Keir,” said one man. Other members of the cabinet fared little better. Participants had either not
Great to be back on the cover of the @NewStatesman this week. This time with some exclusive @StrategyMerlin focus groups in Makerfield 👀 Out in print this week!
THE CASUAL COUP by @PronouncedAlva On the campaign trail with Andy Burnham: This is a campaign on several levels. Burnham has “a tough fight” against Reform, as I hear him say repeatedly while watching him door-knocking. But he’s also fighting two other implied contests: with a
FPTP used to be criticised for artificially propping up our two party system. Now, it means that more parties than ever can exert powerful political influence. I wrote about the new chaos and opportunities of FPTP for this month's @TheCriticMag
First-past-the-post no longer means an electoral carve-up between the Tories and Labour, allowing “fringe” parties real political influence, writes @Scarlett__Mag thecritic.co.uk/issues/june-20…
"Weak" "A wet wipe" "Liar". Voters' verdict on Starmer pre-locals. Our @StrategyMerlin X Charlesbye research showed that the public have already written off Keir Starmer, and that they are looking for change. Great to have our work featured on @SkyNews this morning with @SophyRidgeSky
No party reaches 25% in Milton Keynes. 4 parties polling between 19-24% of the vote...
🧵Some initial reflections in the lull in English results. Foremost this was yet another change election. People just aren’t happy, they want something different. Unlike previous elections they didn’t respond by flipping from one big party to the other but by rejecting both the
We asked what people were voting for in today's local elections. One word stands out: "Change" From our latest research with Charlesbye @MrLeeCain
By a 2-1 voters see their vote in today's elections as based on national factors rather than local ones From our latest @StrategyMerlin X Charlesbye research @MrLeeCain
"Weak" is the most common word used to describe Keir Starmer. Voters up and down the country and across the political spectrum are damning about the PM: From our recent large-scale recent project with Charlesbye Strategy @MrLeeCain
Strikingly, less than 14% of those voting Greens or Reform say they would return to Labour and the Conservatives if they failed to deliver. 31% say they'd look for a new party, 27% say they'd stick with Greens/Reform, 11% say they would not vote.
Voters have never had more options available to them but still a majority say they do not feel represented by a political party.
The 'new' image of the Green Party has not filtered down to all voters yet, with many unaware of Polanski and still primarily associating the party with environmental issues. The 3rd most popular reason for voting Green is 'they represent the radical change the country needs'
But that's not a good thing in the eyes of all voters. Some view Reform as racist and dangerous, some see them as the least bad vehicle for change out of the options presented to them (but still have hesitations), and some are genuinely enthusiastic about Farage and his party.
Views of the insurgent parties (Greens and Reform) are very different. The voters for these parties are the ones with the most appetite for change and the highest distrust in the system as it is. Reform and Greens are seen to be more radical than Conservatives and Labour...
Crucially, the Conservatives fall far behind Reform for which party is best to stop Labour:
Despite Badenoch's recovery, the Conservative brand is still struggling. Voters feel it is "irrelevant" and the party is described as “establishment” and “stuck in the past”.
The Party’s unpopularity is tied closely to government u-turns and a perceived lack of delivery on promises. This was especially true of its handling of the cost-of-living crisis, which most feel has gotten worse since Labour came into power
🌹Starting with views on the major parties, the Labour Party has particularly struggled. It is described as “stuck in the past” “liars” and “failure”
🧵 We @StrategyMerlin partnered with @MrLeeCain Charlesbye to look at the public mood ahead of the local elections. Across the next few days we will showcase the findings and what they mean for our politics...
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9K Followers 3K Following 🌎🇬🇧🇺🇸politics + polls | Founder + Director, Merlin Strategy | https://t.co/YeqaUcNbc4 | [email protected] | @StrategyMerlinYou might like
