@knowledge_vital Was thinking similar. It is an interesting tell on expected or future current demand. Also, on the uncertainties as the deals have a 90 day notice for either to cancel. Most deals with this much uncertainty will eventually be great for just one. Expect cancelation and renegs.
@ThierryBorgeat AI spend on DC to 2030 is approx 6T. Expect another 3-4T in other layers above compute. 2T (~10% GDP) in AI fueled sales needed for a decent return on 10T inv. The problem is the current TOTAL IT spend is about 1.6T.
$MU
$AMD
$NVDA
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Alex Karnal (@alex_karnal) is the most talented bio and healthcare investor I've ever met.
He's spent 20 years in the industry and says 2025 was the single most exciting year he's seen. The start of a once-in-a-lifetime, trillion-dollar revolution in public health.
He explains how few people realize we already have the medicines to prevent our deadliest diseases. The problem is that almost no one takes them.
There's a population of people born with a mutation that means their bodies don't produce a protein called PCSK9. Their lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease is 88% lower than yours. Pharma turned that genetic advantage into a drug. It's been approved for years, but the number of people taking it is still vanishingly small.
Partly because high cholesterol is a silent killer. You feel nothing, right up until you have a heart attack. And partly because the health system makes it punishingly hard to stay on a preventive drug like a PCSK9 inhibitor. In other words, the medicine works, but the system around it doesn't.
That's what's starting to change, and in this episode, Alex explains why.
We discuss the "health stack" he believes can add a decade to most lives, why oral GLP-1s are breaking every adoption record in pharma, peptides and citizen pharmacology, and what AI is doing to drug discovery.
I wish I had an "Alex" for every interesting topic. We've been having versions of this conversation for over five years, and every single one is as clear and as useful as this one.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The State of Modern Medicine
5:00 Designing the Modern Health Stack
12:17 The GLP-1 Inflection Point
19:18 The Biological Mechanisms of GLP-1
30:36 Overcoming Frictions in Healthcare
34:19 Cardiovascular Disease
44:04 Addressing Alzheimer's
47:04 The Future of Cancer
57:33 Drug Discovery
1:05:25 AI and Scientific Super Intelligence
1:14:40 Citizen Pharmacology and the Peptide Movement
1:18:13 Background and Career Journey
1:31:09 Braidwell's Investment Approach
1:33:30 The Kindest Thing
$NAUT Nice move up. Recent investor calls and Baylor early access project confidence in tech and the commercialization plans. While 5x from this last post, i added some more around 2.5 but not adding more in to almost 4.
$NAUT $0.7 is potentially on the verge of a break out and quite possibly a 5x from here IF no new major tech issues. Mgmt has delayed launch a few times due to tech challenges. Based on resent updates, seems like they have gotten around those. CEO has been buying. MCap ~90M
$NAUT at $3.5 is already 5x. They are making great progress. Will likely raise a little (hopefully less the 7% MCap) around 5 or higher and they should.
@TheDrugMoney $NAUT Recent pre print shows promise that blocking tech issues are resolved. Most other promising proteomics companies (Olink, SomaScan) already bought out by large players ( $TMO and $ILMN respectively). At least 10x or bust.
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement:
* $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip.
* $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold.
More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close.
Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!
@Biohazard3737 So far IG is showing down 0.5% on Dow futures. Let's see how it unfolds. Unless any specific DJT post, we will likely be down more than 0.5% by the time we open.
What just happened?
At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.
Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.
Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.
By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.
Markets are now closed until Monday.
@PepInvestStocks@CaesarCapitalz $NAUT Owned for quite some time. Bought more recently around 2.5, even though my average is under $1. Worth at least $2B once the tech continues to scale and deliver. $OLNK is an comparable, even though $NAUT beats the tech and could be valued more. hopefull over $5 by EOY.
@KlendathuCap $NAUT Still long? While seriously delayed, the tech seem to be working now. Around $2.5 (310M Mkt cap) still seem like a great buy. Agree, worth at least a few billions if they continue to make good tech and commercial progress. My top postion now.
Just returned from my first trip to China, mostly looking at the energy and robotics industries. Fascinating. Random observations, both business and general, below...
1/x
36K Followers 1K FollowingCombining investing experience, data driven strategy and AI to invest. All opinions are my own. I post my reseach and ideas. Please do your own research.
16K Followers 479 FollowingYour source for the latest #Science and #Biotech news. If you're interested in #CRISPR #GeneEditing hit follow! Spaces podcast host🎙- all 33 episodes ⬇️
6K Followers 4K FollowingI hope something good happens to you today.Retired/Military/Pub/Private Investor. You will miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, so take them. GO LONG.
601 Followers 875 FollowingA day & dollar closer to "critical mass".
I'm here to talk about stocks... I'll sometimes play devil's advocate, simply to push people to think more broadly.
1K Followers 977 FollowingPrivate Tim’s X account. Sharing my personal opinions and insights on how I help investors in their quest to outperform the market. Public @eriksen_tim
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5 Followers 110 Followingallergic to bloat. build fast, cut deeper, sell smarter. zero patience for nonsense. proud supplier to the toughest industries on earth.
566 Followers 2K FollowingI follow the Word and the Money. IQD | VND | XRP | Crypto | Wealth Transfer. 10 years real estate. Plain talk. No bad actors tolerated. I Christ is King!
124 Followers 1K Followingthe sheep don't know it’s being led by a wolf. The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis.
4K Followers 3K FollowingIt’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket... it's part-ownership of a business. Here for the long term. See you in 2030. ✌️
354 Followers 3K FollowingAsheville girl. Mom; wife; lover of dogs, horses, children and the law. Enemy of the Oxford comma. To tweet or not to tweet, that is the question.