Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode
Connecting technology with people in Google Cloud's Office of CTO. Wrangler of data and children. Inherently curious but try to stay pragmatic. Opinions my own chuckcode.com Joined September 2009-
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@choffstein Great episode! Definitely worth listening too. BLNDX has handily beaten standard 60/40 since inception on both return and risk metrics. Eric's talks 5 years ago on Excess Returns and Flirting With Models made me rethink investment approach. Wish for higher vol version...
@MebFaber @SowingAlphaSeed @orrdavid @AlexMoonvest @fundstrat @Hedgeye @opptrader1 @CarterBWorth @FundsmithLLP @Ritholtz @WarrenPies Might be a KO... Huge congrats to you and team, great ETF and amazing performance in first year. Really sound asset allocation and capital efficiency makes it new baseline IMHO
@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @RuleByPowerLaw @DadInvest What about swapping out some of VT for UPRO & EFO or something similar for capital efficiency and adding little more trend?
@choffstein Any thoughts on using momentum/trend to help time rebalancing portfolios? "Strategic Rebalancing" paper seems to suggest simple heuristics delaying rebalancing while assets trending down seem to reduce overall draw downs papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
@SowingAlphaSeed Sounds like good diversification in a high valuations market. Unfortunately $QDSIX isn’t as tax efficient. Would definitely look at $AQMIX or $QMHIX for as well. I know you’re skeptical of MF traditional trend following, but I think AQR is doing more than that.
@SowingAlphaSeed AQR had a bad spell from 2018-2020 when their quant algos didn't perform. Last 5 years pretty consistent though. Amazing how liquid alts get solid returns with almost zero Beta or R2 and controlled vol. Don't mesh with mantra of low cost index and chill though
@SowingAlphaSeed Thanks. I haven't figured out how identify quality managers yet, large quality screen could really help. With current skills I've been focused on basic approach of core portfolio with cheapish equity beta and uncorrelated alts with leverage to desired volatility
@dampedspring Portfolio needs vary. I was surprised with level of DBMF equity correlation over past few years. QMHNX from AQR is not an ETF nor low expense, but good for me with relatively high sharpe combined with low equity beta and low taxable distributions testfol.io/?s=chFrFGpiqIQ
@HML_Compounder Any software or services you recommend to track aggregated performance? Been disappointed how poorly Schwab does accounting for distributions being reinvested
@OptimizedPort Nice comparison to RPAR, would be curious to see how similar portfolio backtests too. Little surprised to see such large bond allocation given Dalio’s worry’s about govt debt and inflation
@OptimizedPort @Investinc_Intel Where do portable alpha strategies like RSST or QCFNX land in the 4 phases?
@SowingAlphaSeed Sharpe and Sortino look low compared to testfol.io ? Do you have details about how you're calculating? testfol.io/?s=83BpGExQwrh
@OptimizedPort Thanks! Do you have any thoughts on how RSSB or other return stacking ETFs change tax impact? Do the use of futures/derivatives have tax implications like additional distributions or classification of distributions?
@iblanco_finance Meb Faber reported similar reduction in volatility, MaxDD going back to 1901 with 200 day MA in his paper "Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation". Would probably have to do in a tax advantaged account. mebfaber.com/wp-content/upl…
@kaggle Read our blog "Evaluating LLMs by Finding Werewolves" kaggle.com/blog/game-aren…
The AI field is in need of harder benchmarks to test capabilities of the latest AI models. This update to @kaggle Game Arena with werewolf and poker (heads-up) plus chess, gives us new objective measures of real-world skills like planning and decision making under uncertainty.
📌 Mark Your Calendar: Live Game Arena Event This Monday! We are releasing two new games, Poker and Werewolf, along with an updated Chess leaderboard next Monday, February 2, running daily from 9:30 AM PT to 11:30 AM PT through February 4.
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