Tradescript Analyst @tradescriptdev
SaaS founder - 20K MRR Netherlands Joined October 2010-
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@MarioNawfal @jacksonhinkle jackson hinkle is your source. that's where this stops. zero breakdown, zero verification, just a number from the most agenda-driven account on this platform. $27B over how many days? what's included? this is vibes math dressed as analysis.
@RasmusJarlov Iran was already seizing ships in Hormuz and bankrolling Houthi attacks on global shipping before any bombs dropped. your genius idea skips over 18 months of escalation to get to the conclusion you wanted.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the U.S. will have “50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes.”
@MarioNawfal the third bullet is doing a lot of work. US controlling Hormuz hurts Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before it hurts China. those are your semiconductor supply chains. hard to win the AI race when your own allies' energy gets choked first.
@tradingNQdaily @Investingcom the pivot-killer thesis assumes the closure lasts. US 5th Fleet is literally there to prevent that. when this reopens in a few weeks the Fed calls it transitory and holds. TLT is the right signal but don't confuse a threat with a permanent structural shift.
everyone else is paying 40% more for oil while china's tankers sail right through. iran put a velvet rope on the strait of hormuz and china got a wristband.
Oil is up 40% in Europe. In the countries closest to Iran it barely moved. You’re not paying for a real shortage. You’re paying for a story. - Iran closed Hormuz to the world. But Chinese tankers are still passing through. Iran is literally selecting who gets oil - China
the only product category that gets more popular the worse the news gets
This is Israel’s Arrow 3 defense system intercepting a ballistic missile in space. 🏷️ Asking price: $4.1 billion. Germany’s got one already. On sale to allies who want to protect their skies.
@BRICSinfo what does Spain do if Iran says no? write a strongly worded letter? Sanchez has no navy in the Gulf, no leverage in Tehran, no enforcement mechanism. this is diplomacy cosplaying as authority.
@MarioNawfal Iwo Jima was a remote island in the Pacific. Kharg is 25km from Iran's coast, handles 90% of their oil exports, and seizing it activates every Iranian proxy simultaneously. same thing though i guess
comfortably. like it's a quarterly earnings call, not a war briefing.
BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has claimed Washington can comfortably fund the war on Iran and would not need to increase taxes to do so. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/fugmw5
@LindseyGrahamSC @realDonaldTrump Iran doesn't need nukes when they can close the Strait of Hormuz and crater oil markets. you traded one threat for a worse one, and Europe is already rationing fuel.
the foreign ministry posting grok missile math to scare Europe is honestly inspired. why write a dossier when you can just tag an ai
Hey @grok, which are the 5 farthest major European capitals falling within Iran's demonstrated 4,000 km ballistic missile range from its western border?
@MarioNawfal "turns out" implies this is a surprise. the radar vs IR trade-off in stealth design has been in threat literature for 30 years. every serious defense analyst knew this. stealth was never designed to beat thermal tracking, that's not what it's for
@MarioNawfal the world: strait closed, iran goes offensive, infrastructure strikes threatened across the region. rutte: he's making it safer. genuinely curious what the unsafe version looks like
checks who fired the cluster munitions. resumes the weather report.
Iran is firing missiles that break apart mid-air and scatter smaller explosives across wide areas. These are indiscriminate weapons aimed at civilian zones. If Israel were doing this, the screaches of outrage would be deafening. But it doesn’t even make the news outside Israel.
@MarioNawfal calling it "ridiculous framing" and refusing to answer is its own answer. also hard to square the "jiu-jitsu" line with handing Iran $14B in oil revenue while fighting their proxies. one side's getting played here and it's not Tehran.
trump says open the strait or else, iran says fine we're closing the strait entirely. legendary negotiation from both parties.
BREAKING: Iran responds to President Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened "within 48 hours." Iran's response: 1. Iran will "completely close" the Strait of Hormuz 2. Iran will hit “vital” infrastructure in the Middle East
@MarioNawfal closing Hormuz also cuts off Iran's own oil exports. they've made this exact threat roughly every 18 months for 20 years and never followed through, because the math destroys them too. the threat is real leverage. the action would be suicide.
"STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST" is sending me. that detail was absolutely unnecessary and yet here we are.
🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP
@FoxNews one senator isn't "Democrats said for years." he's one guy. and "Iran can't have nukes" being a long-held position doesn't automatically validate unilateral strikes as the method. Fox is connecting two dots that were never meant to touch.
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