$24 billion is a target no powerful traders can ignore.
when prediction markets were small only people were trading who had an edge
but the journey from $1b to $24b isn't only a story of growth
every billion inflow made corrupting the signal a little more worth it
$24m moved the 2024 election odds and media covered it as ground truth
$436k was placed before the Venezuelan president was arrested and Congress immediately started talking about banning pms
$79 million was made by a single trader and the industry called it proof of accuracy.
ofcourse these were not accidents, For these people a $24 billion market was an investment opportunity and that opportunity was to scale the odds
and thats the biggest paradox of the market
The more you scale the more corrupt you become.
this is the fundamental tension the entire industry needs to address
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