Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics
Actuary. Gambler. Pragmatist. Canadian. Small data specialist. King of korrelated parlays. Husband. Father. Below-average golfer. Parrot parent. plusevanalytics.com Toronto, Ontario Joined January 2013-
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@Ianbtc777 You're underthinking it. Most small businesses aren't card shops that exclusively sell Wemby rookie cards.
More small businesses will NOT use tools like this, because most small businesses' normal operations do not contain the specific types of risk that are able to be hedged, worthy of being hedged and not already hedged by existing products like insurance. What are we all smoking?
NYC bar: free drinks if the Knicks win Game 1 at @TheJeffreyNYC Their hedge: a $5K position on @Kalshi Prediction markets as a small business tool is interesting. Large companies have had access to these hedges through their banks for years. In a world of market volatility and
@__Max__S__ The use cases for hedging for anything are pretty sparse! The whole thing is a solution in search of a problem.
Small sample plus a hand picked start date can sell you anything. Game 1 overs 8-1-1 since 2017... The same Game 1 overs are 10-9-1 since 2007. Always ask why someone chose the year they chose. This is a great example of endpoint shopping.
@DaveMasonBOL More about PR for Kalshi IMO. Jimmy's Bar & Grill doesn't have a $22 billion valuation to support.
The Kalshi Knicks pub thing is neat and all, but isn't the hype train going a bit off the rails for a niche deal worth three hundred dollars in revenue?
"But what if the pub offers this deal on every Knicks game?" Great, now Kalshi's revenue is zero hundred dollars because the wins and losses will even out over the course of a year within a narrow enough range that you can budget for the cost without having to pay for a hedge.
@ThePlZZAGuy @robpizzola @capjack2000 Without modeling it out myself I'm 99% sure the answer is no. Puck lines are a large enough market that it's highly unlikely that the market would be wrong enough to make these bets good.
@realTomBayes x.com/plusevanalytic…
Binding arbitration. Holders of the largest yes position and the largest no position get the option to argue their case themselves, hire someone to represent them or pass to the next largest position. Live stream the hearing. Like Judge Judy.
No they do not
Commissioner O'Brien: "Does the patron understand what act or omission on their part trigger the limiting? If it doesn't answer that, you have a problem."
They must be doing the "dick's last resort" thing where they act like assholes as a schtick, right??
We’ve never seen these rules posted in a casino before. @suncoastcasino
The style of tweet that goes BREAKING: <insane conspiracy> according to <random crackpot> needs to be de-monetized. We're trying to have a society here.
Someone should ask the @MassGamingComm "I'm just starting out in sports betting and I want to make sure I don't do anything wrong that would get my account limited. I don't understand fancy terms like "advantage play" and "price sensitivity". What should I make sure I don't do?"
@robpizzola Worth it for the 10% chance the notoriously fussy and neurotic MGC finds this wording unacceptable
@brianhc You'd be wasting your time. They did what the law requires.
Anyone who expected a more detailed explanation than this needs to return to their home planet immediately
Index funds used to be the way to stop the system from screwing you, until the system figured out a way to manipulate them to screw you. Many such cases.
So what happened was, he who was without sin cast the first stone
Blue Jays manager John Schneider says Jesus Sanchez told him he was having a “playful" back & forth with a 12-year-old fan & motioned to the fan “almost like, ‘hey, let’s have a catch.’ And I think the kid took it literally and hit Sanch with the ball."
Those prediction market interfaces can be confusing and it's easy to make a mistake when you're rushing to get a bet in. I stand with Taylor. She's ridiculous but not for this specific reason.
Oh is that why so many MA friends are getting their accounts closed? Unintended consequences remain undefeated...
BETTING NEWS: Starting tomorrow (Monday, June 1) legal sports betting operators in Massachusetts MUST notify customers who have been limited: WHY, WHEN & HOW they were limited But operators remain FREE to close out accounts without warning or explantion Story/Thread Below 🧵
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