user @user7397

Joined June 2017

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user @user7397

a month ago

@ErnestWongBWM @CeleritasRe How is Homes necessary for the success/failure of the commercial suite? The "harm" is due to management's own perception of the value of Homes as a standalone business and the synergies with Apartments

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Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag

a month ago

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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user @user7397

3 months ago

@compound248 The cost of building software wasn't a moat before AI

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user @user7397

3 months ago

@EarningsMatter Stripe isn't going to give 50% of its equity to PayPal

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user @user7397

3 months ago

@obsidiancap1 0

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user @user7397

4 months ago

@JerryCap Fico’s model isn’t proprietary? Lol

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user @user7397

4 months ago

@buccocapital Great read. I couldn’t help but notice the two companies with the highest risk going forward are the two he’s in competition with (or used to compete with). I agree with the assessment but quite ironic

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user @user7397

4 months ago

@JerryCap its entertainment for nerds

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user @user7397

5 months ago

@JerryCap Maybe they nuked the equity to buyback the stock cheap

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user @user7397

6 months ago

@JerryCap @CapitalJurassic The core business trades at high teens forward ebitda and is a monopoly lol if they cut homes or it works out, this trades above 100

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user @user7397

6 months ago

@endowment_eddie Is the S&P500 really comparable to PE-backed companies? Strip out the Mag 7, or use the Russell, and the charts probably look more similar (especially if you looked at EBIT)

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user @user7397

9 months ago

@endowment_eddie I’m sure there are some circumstances where an IPO is feasible.. there have been many down round IPOs recently. But most companies have late stage investors with a way of blocking a liquidity event

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user @user7397

10 months ago

@bgurley @jaminball Check out IPO performance 3-5 years later. Doesn’t seem like a bad deal for the vast majority of companies based on LT performance. Some great companies have been dead money for years

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user @user7397

a year ago

@bgurley VC play a similar game. Mark ups heading into a fundraise, raise a larger fund, collect more management fees, have your friends invest in next round to mark up the asset, etc. And most of the funds end up sucking anyways. I bet this HL fund has better net returns than avg VC fund

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user @user7397

a year ago

@buccocapital Trying to get rich quick ensures you’ll never get rich

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user @user7397

a year ago

@chamath So just copying Coatue?

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user @user7397

a year ago

@BucknSF These funds are not underwriting to 3-4x returns. More like 1.5-2x in a shorter duration. Math is still very difficult but not fair to compare against a $150-$300M fund.

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user @user7397

a year ago

@tbpn Get a transcript of the show and summarize it using an LLM

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user @user7397

a year ago

@corry_wang There are some vendors that have networks effects, or are multi player with external participants, like Figma or Procore. That’s a moat that makes it different this time perhaps?